Saturday, 6 December 2008

Was I wrong ?

A few months ago I did my stats and worked out the South African white murder rate was 8/100 000. I used the proportion or murders than happen to white people (believed then to be 2%) and the proportion of the poulation and divided it into the official murder rate. Then I came across the official stats that had been taken up until 2004 and found that in fact in 1 or 2 years it had been as high as 20/100 000. I averaged out the murder rate over the period since 1994 and came to a compromise of around 12 per 100 000 people.

I recently came across a statistic taken by South African author and Oxford Graduate Johnny Steinberg. He's a Rhodes scholarship winner and a pretty well respected guy. He did his own research without any agenda (which I obviously had). While I'm not known for my endearing sense of modesty I do on rare occassion catch a glimpse that I might be outgunned for credibility. So let's just consider the unthinkable for a moment : Was Rooster wrong?

Steinberg came to the following conclusion : 1 in 33 murders in South Africa happen to white people.

Now the official murder rate in South Africa is 38/100 000. But only on in 33 of these happens to white people. So if I'm being dishonest I can say so we divide murders by 33 and that represents white murders ! The white murder rate is 1.151 per 100 000 ! Less than the UK ! Australia ! Japan ! Everywhere !

The smarter ones are already protesting though, and rightly so.

Whites only make up 9% of the population. To put it another way around 1 in 11 people in South Africa is white. We have to multiple 1.151 by 11 times to accurately reflect the murder rate of white South Africans.

And what answer do we get ?

12.661/100 000

No my beloved f#ckwads. Rooster was not wrong. Eat Sh!t.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown has branded the cholera crisis in Zimbabwe "an international emergency" and called on the world community to confront President Robert Mugabe, leader of the central African nation.
A shortage of clean drinking water has unleashed a cholera epidemic in Zimbabwe.

A shortage of clean drinking water has unleashed a cholera epidemic in Zimbabwe.

"This is now an international rather than a national emergency," Brown said in a statement Saturday. "International because disease crosses borders. International because the systems of government in Zimbabwe are now broken. There is no state capable or willing of protecting its people."

Earlier this week the government of Zimbabwe, which already suffers from severe economic problems and political instability, declared a national emergency following the outbreak, which has so far killed more than 600 people.

Cholera, a water-borne disease, is on the increase in nine of Zimbabwe's 10 provinces, the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned. It blamed "poor water and sanitation supply, a collapsed health system and limited government capacity to respond to the emergency."

Many of those afflicted with the disease have fled to neighboring countries to seek medical health -- which risks spreading the outbreak still further.

Brown called on the international community to tell Mugabe "enough is enough," and suggested that the United Nations Security Council meet to discuss the issue.

He added that the most pressing issue was to ensure that testing and rehydration equipment and packs reach the right people, as well as for aid agencies to set up a organizational structure in the state capital Harare to confront the disease.

"The people of Zimbabwe voted for a better future. It is our duty to support that aspiration," Brown added.

Brown's comments came one day after U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that the outbreak is the latest sign that Mugabe's rule over the country must end.

"It's well past time for Robert Mugabe to leave. I think that's now obvious," Rice said during a visit to Denmark.

Washington has long called for Mugabe to leave office, with President George W. Bush calling Zimbabwe's runoff presidential election in June a "sham" and instructing Rice and other U.S. officials to develop additional sanctions against Mugabe's "illegitimate government."
Don't Miss

* Zimbabwe declares cholera national emergency
* Zimbabwe cholera death toll nears 500
* Carter: Cholera-, inflation-ridden Zimbabwe 'a basket case'

"The United States will always do anything and everything that it can to help innocent people who are suffering," Rice said. "And we are not going to deny assistance to people in need because of their government. But if this is not evidence to the international community that it's time to stand up for what is right, I don't know what will be. And frankly, the nations of the region have to lead it."

Rice -- who has just about a month left in office before President-elect Barack Obama's administration takes over -- also called on all African nations to speak up.

Asked whether the United States and Europe should try to force out Mugabe, Rice responded, "Well, without help in the region, it's very difficult to have the tools that will bring about a just resolution in Zimbabwe. The United States and Europe can't do everything alone. Other states are responsible too. And the southern African states should be the most responsible at this point, because they have the most at risk. And the people of Zimbabwe have suffered long enough."

Supporters of Mugabe, who has come under heavy international criticism for several years, were accused of political intimidation following June's presidential runoff vote.

For months there have been some efforts to build a power-sharing government between Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF party and the opposition movement for Democratic Change, led by Morgan Tsvangirai, to little avail.

On Thursday, Mugabe hinted he may form a Cabinet without the opposition and call for early elections. The opposition responded that it would welcome a "genuine election," with international supervision.

The 84-year-old Mugabe, who has led Zimbabwe since its independence in 1980 from Great Britain, also suggested he would ignore an international tribunal ruling that declared illegal his government's seizure of farms from white Zimbabweans.