Wednesday 23 January 2013

Cost of energy in South Africa...myths debunked.



Who would have thought listening to the typical lacking of context criticism Eskom, the South African electricity provider gets that in fact South Africa is an a brilliant and economical producer of electricity.

South Africans truly are the undisputed world champions of complaining and whinging about sweet F-all. When a South African's lips are moving, especially a white person's you can be sure of two almost certain things.

1) They are complaining.
2) They are not in possession of the actual facts.

Take the following assumptions that South Africans make about our electricity production.

1) It is sub par.
2) It is expensive.

Now if you are South African you are reading that in a matter of fact way and nodding your head in agreement. What's scary about that is that you are so dimensionally wrong as even the most laziest research into reality would easily expose.

Let's take a look at the first premise.

1) South African electricity production is sub par.

Now lets' qualify that statement. What is sub par ? Does South Africa the worlds 25th biggest economy produce less electricity than it should ?

No.South Africa is the worlds 15th largest electricity producer. That despite being only the worlds 24th most populated country.

So really that's nonsense. S.A is performing well above par in producing electricity.

Now to the second wrong belief : S.A's electricity is expensive. This is so wrong it's laughable. S.A has some of the cheapest electricity in the world. That despite being a developing country. S.A in fact produces cheaper electricity than all except China of the Brics economies and the average income far exceeds that of China making it of course relatively cheaper.

Next petrol. South Africans shit their pants about our petrol price. Here's when a little perspective can help them not feel so uniquely and individually raped like spoiled little brats. South Africa's petrol price is again very low for a developing country with only India slightly cheaper in the brics economies. Put that into perspective that South Africa has basically no natural oil reserves and is geographically very poorly situated to gain cheap access to it. You'd really expect us to have very expensive fuel.

So there you go cry babies. Stop feeling so sorry for yourselves and taking everything so damn personally as if as a South African you are exposed to special kind of suffering. Nobody likes someone who has it better than most and yet can do nothing but moan. Shut up.



26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Rooster, glad you're OK. (You are, right?)

Righto, my contribution to your amusement :

I'll continue to moan and whinge just because it pisses you off so much!

Chill man!

:-)

The Rooster said...

Yup. Healthy and fit as a lion.

It doesn't piss off that people moan, it pisses me off that they can be so stubborn in the face of obvious facts.

One small example : South Africa hasn't been a net importer of food for close to 7 years now...but you will still hear that we are if you go down to the pub. It's nonsense and it's people just lying to themselves to pretend everything is so bleak when it's just not true.

Anonymous said...

Glad to hear you're healthy!

South African farmers are pretty damn awesome, aren't they?

-high input costs plus all the other risks associated with farming

-ideological hostility from the state

-crime (farmers excluding their families are murdered at a rate higher than police in SA)

-SA is a semi-arid country

-with exports they have to compete with other countries subsidizing their farmers


And yet...40-50k farmers feed a population of 50+million!

Go SA-farmers!


And back on topic...I'd love to see some competitors for eskom.

Cheers!

The Rooster said...

South African farmers, when sticking to farming, are world fucking champions. No argument there from me.

Where is all that positive can-do attitude that turned this semi arid country into such a farming paradise and powerhouse when you need it ? It's pitiful after all the hardship and constant struggle the farmers and in many cases the Afrikaans people as a group have had to endure to see them whimper and cry now that they're hapless victims.

Come on ! That's not the tough bastard, roll the sleeves up south African whites I grew up loving and respecting.

We fucked up some things in the past. We are suffering a period now where inevitably we have to suck up some hangover from it. No fucking reason to spit the dummy.

I mean if we had such a great education system and offered such great opportunities for black in the country we ran, why are those around the age of 40 and over far less educated, worse off with less prospects than those that are even 10 today ?

I don't know my people to be cry babies. It lacks dignity.

The Rooster said...

Just a few facts you missed.

South African farmers are not murdered at a higher rate than police. Not even close. They are in fact murdered at a lower rate than the average citizen. That is something over and over and over again I have proven with pure facts, no emotional arguments, just pure facts.

And there are not 50 000 farmers in South Africa...there are almost that many commercial FARMS....200 000 plus small holdings and a millions subsistence farmers etc to go with that. South Africa has at least a million farmers and family..and that's just owners...not counting workers at all.

Anonymous said...

47500 commercial farmers in SA

http://www.sairr.org.za/media/media-releases/press-release-commercial-farming-drives-food-security-8th-august-2012/view



Of the 50 farmmurder-victims of 2011, 32 were farmers.

http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=331358&sn=Detail&pid=71616




This gives a murder rate of (32/47500*100000)= 67 per 100000 for farmers.







According to Johan Burger of the ISS, the murder rate for police is 51 per 100000.

http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=343340&sn=Marketingweb+detail






My facts are correct. There are 50k commercial farmers in SA (the guys that run the farms) and they are murdered at a rate higher than cops in SA.

The Rooster said...

the 35 "farmers" murdered last year is made up of farmers, workers, family etc. You say there are 50 000 of these in South Africa when there are 40 000 commercial farms ?

Wow..south africans ARE AMAZING farmers as they run commercial farms single hand-idly !

Poor bastards dont even have time to get married or have kids. And they're all orphans.

/sarsasm

The obvious flaws in your stats are hard to ignore, and yet you have flat out ignored them for a more "convenient" truth. Sies.

The Rooster said...

Not to mention your very own article you link to mentions that T.A.U does include murders that happen on the nearly 200 000 small holdings in South Africa. So why aren't you dividing into that number ?

In other words 32/ (at the very minimum) 250 000 ? 12.8 per 100 000 at most.



The Rooster said...

I would like to commend you for at least making and effort to attack me with some data and not scream the hyperbolic "boer genocide" numbers at me stupidly like so many others have done.

"over 3000 white farmers murdered !"

etc etc

(what a load of kak)

Blast from the past said...

Hi Rooster

First things first. I'm the anonymous commentator from above. I'm a long-time follower of your blog and used to comment under a different screen name. See if you can recognise and remember me. Until then, I'm writing under this screen name.

And I'm not your stereotypical far-right boer-genocide advocating commentator. So you can drop the bitching tone right now, okay?

And I did not "attack" you with data. I "presented" you with data.

Be nice with me and I'll be nice with you.


I'm busy writing you a response to your comments on my arguments. In the meantime, can you please tell me what the average murder rate for whites is?

The Rooster said...

Don't be touchy. If you are a long time reader of this blog, you will know I deal with the same rubbish statements time and time again despite having addressed them countless time in the past with facts.

The murder rate for white South Africans is 13 per 100 000 for men and 2.4 per 100 000 for women.

Blast from the past said...

So here’s my promised response…

It seems both of us missed some details from the links I provided you with.

Firstly, I forgot that TAU’s farmmurder stats include attacks and murders on smallholdings. I read that article a long time ago. My bad. Sorry.

Secondly, you read my statement of the number of farmers murdered in 2011 too fast. Read again SLOWLY:

Of the 50 farmmurder-victims of 2011, 32 were farmers.



I quote from the link provided:

Drawing on TAU SA's more complete statistics on confirmed farm murders Johan Burger of the Institute of Security Studies wrote that of the 50 victims in 2011 32 were farmers, 14 were direct family, three were workers and one was a visitor.

Okay, Rooster...got it? There were 50 fifty farmmurders in 2011. 32 of those 50 were FARMERS (the guys that go out in the mornings to milk the cows, etc etc). The rest was non-farmers (family, workers and one visitor).




So we agree that 2011 saw 32 FARMERS murdered?



So I got creative with the numbers and got various results:

According to calculations done in the link provided, 60% of farm-attacks are on farms, not smallholdings. So we assure that 60% of the 32 murders occurred on farms, thus 19 farmers murdered on farms. Assuming these are all commercial farmers on farms, we get a murder rate of

19/47500*100000 = 40 per 100000

However, assuming that the 32 murdered farmers were all commercial farmers, I believe the 67 per 100k murder rate is still valid. Why?

47500 commercial farmers in SA according to link provided. That is the number of commercial FARMERS, irrespective whether they farm on smallholdings or farms.

Thus, resting on the assumption that the 32 murdered farmers were all commercial farmers, the murder rate for COMMERCIAL FARMERS of 67/100000 is valid.

Bringing their families into account… 32+14=46 murders. The average family size of whites in SA is 3. Thus the murder rate for commercial farmers (assuming they’re all white) AND their families becomes:

46/142500*100000 = 32 per 100000


So the central assumption in my argument is that the 32 murdered farmers were all COMMERCIAL farmers.

More calculations… assuming that those 32 murdered farmers came from the ranks of ALL farmers in SA (commercial, emerging and subsistence) then we have 47’500 + 220’000 + 1’300’000 = roughly 1.5 million farmers. See the links for the data. Then the murder rate becomes 2/100000.

Assuming that those 32 murders were on only commercial and emerging farmers, the murder rate is 12/100000.

If those 32 were white, do you agree that we can safely assume that they were commercial farmers?




Moving on… the boer-genocide-talks… I don’t believe farmmurders to be genocide. I believe the motive of robbery is what initially drives the perpetrators to commit the crime. Then in the situation of heightened violence, the attackers’ hate against whites is often expressed in violence. Thus I believe the primary motive is robbery and the secondary motive is a motive of hate.



To conclude… more stats:

http://www.sairr.org.za/sairr-today-1/Farm%20attacks%20in%20South%20Africa%20-%20a%20new%20analysis..pdf/view

Apologies if there are mistakes in my calculations. I rushed this response.

Blast from the past said...

Hi Rooster, did you get my promised response?

The Rooster said...

Yeah...good response. I won't nit pick.

I think the point is clear that farmers are not a target of some genocide and that's extremely clear.

It's not even interesting to debate if farm workers resent and hate white farmers in some cases. And if that plays a part in certain cases as a motive for murder. I'm sure it does. Don't be a cunt to your workers I suppose....not that I validate or am an apologist for the murderers.....it's just you know.....play it safe.

Blast from the past said...

My last thoughts on farmmurders for this conversation (unless you have something more to add)…


The perpetrators are almost always young unemployed black men. See chapter 7 of the 2003 farm-attack inquiry report :

http://www.issafrica.org/CJM/farmrep/index.htm






Among this very same sector of society (unemployed black youth) Mr Malema found his support base :

http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=275299&sn=Detail&pid=71616

http://www.sairr.org.za/media/media-releases/Malema%20out%20but%20youth%20problem%20remains%20-%2010%20November%202011.pdf/view

http://www.sairr.org.za/sairr-today-1/research-and-policy-brief-forewarned-is-forearmed-23rd-june-2011



This is thus evidence that there is a polarized state against whites among the sector of society from which farm-attackers originate.

A strong indicator that the primary motive for farm-attacks is crime-related, is that the occurrence of farm-attacks roughly follows the same trends as SA’s broader crime trends. (Farm-attacks peaked in the late 90’s and early 2000’s – the peak period for most of SA’s crime).

The indicators of a motive of hate is
- The high murder rate for farmers (both excluding and including their families, compared to the murder rate for whites in general)
- The excessive violence
- The polarized state against whites among the sector of society from which farm-attackers originate

Hence I think farm-attacks and –murders are initiated by a motive of robbery, and then hate crimes also occur because of the polarization.





I do NOT believe farmmurders to be genocide, but rather in a sense hate crimes. And I believe there is a definite RISK of genocide. Why?

There are radical organizations that hate whites (ANCYL, COSATU, etc).

They have an ideological MOTIVE that may justify forcibly displacing farmers and even killing them (radical proponents of the NDR-ideology, land reform, etc)

They have a MEANS to commit such crimes…a polarized support base among the unemployed black youth who they can mobilise into a People’s War-like anarchy. The WC-strikes is a prime example.

I do not yet see an OPPORTUNITY to commit such crimes. However, SA’s increasing instability (strikes and service-delivery protests, unemployment, poverty, inequality) might progress to the point that it can serve as a smokescreen for mobilising people into violence against whites and specifically farmers. That is my fear.


And Rooster, my experience says that by this point those conditioned reflexes of yours to respond to me with something tinged with aggression/sarcasm will want to come into play. Please man, keep calm. I’m here for a rational discussion.

:-)

Guess that’s enough for now

cheers

The Rooster said...

Ok fine..so you think there's some potential for there to be some form of genocide because of racial polarization....

1) who do you suggest is behind this racial polarization ?
2) Does the far right painting blacks all as savages and murderers...or people on the internet spreading hate towards blacks...does that in any way help the situation ? Or fuel the fires ?

Anonymous said...

Actually, Rooster, your bullet points are moot.

Here's why.

It is true that Eskom provides fairly good quality electricity (that isn't subpar), but it is not true that SA's electricity is cheap (or expensive). Comparing Eskom's prices to other countries is irrelevant because we are unable to buy electricity from other countries.

Eskom is a monopoly. The state prohibits competition, so it is not possible to determine whether or not our electricity is cheap or expensive. The price of our electricity is not set by the market, but rather set artificially by the government. It is for this reason that the government has kept prices artificially low for years and is suddenly increasing them drastically.

That is terrible economics and unsustainable.

Sure, Eskom provides electricity to most of SA, but that is expected and nothing to rave about. But because it is state-owned, there is plenty evidence to show that Eskom wastes billions of taxpayers' money through inefficiency, laundering, excessive spending, and poor innovation (because there isn't an incentive to innovate). Medupi - the coal power station being built in Limpopo - has a 25% stake belonging to the ANC.

It is very possible that Eskom provides expensive electricity. A simple test would be to allow competition and you will see prices fall. (This prediction is based on economic trends of every other service or good in a competitive market).

To argue that Eskom is "not expensive" is moot because it can't be compared to anything in the same market environment.

The Rooster said...

Sure, Eskom provides electricity to most of SA, but that is expected and nothing to rave about. But because it is state-owned, there is plenty evidence to show that Eskom wastes billions of taxpayers' money through inefficiency, laundering, excessive spending, and poor innovation (because there isn't an incentive to innovate). Medupi - the coal power station being built in Limpopo - has a 25% stake belonging to the ANC.

It is very possible that Eskom provides expensive electricity. A simple test would be to allow competition and you will see prices fall. (This prediction is based on economic trends of every other service or good in a competitive market).

To argue that Eskom is "not expensive" is moot because it can't be compared to anything in the same market environment.

_______________

I'm not trying to argumentative, but you are free and welcome to set up an alternative form of energy if you can find a way cheaper than Eskom. Nobody holds a gun to your head. And I really don't see anyone coming into the market setting up multi billion rand infrastructure and being able to compete with the Eskom grid in cost or supply for anything close to 20 years. Not a great business model but they are free to try.

Blast from the past said...

1) radicals on both sides of the racial divide.

2) of course the far right doesn't help with their attempts to spread hate against blacks. Like you like to say...hate bounces...and might I add : back and forth and back and forth... The far right is part of the problem.

BTW, can't you guess who I am yet? My former screen name?

The Rooster said...

Boereseun was my guess. Was I wrong ?

Blast from the past said...

Um... I think you might have the right person in mind, but the screen name is wrong. I searched your blog and it seems there was never a "Boereseun" that commented on your blog.

So I'm not sure if your guess is right.

The Rooster said...

6000 comments on my blog. Boertjie then is it ?

Blast from the past AKA Boertjie said...

OK then I just didn't know how to search your blog for a specific commentator.

Bingo! I am Boertjie.

The Rooster said...

Ah jah...boertjie ! Always one of my favourite posters. Welcome back son !

Boertjie said...

Thank you Rooster! I actually never left... just stopped posting. But I think you'll hear from me more often now again.

Anonymous said...

"I'm not trying to argumentative, but you are free and welcome to set up an alternative form of energy if you can find a way cheaper than Eskom. Nobody holds a gun to your head. And I really don't see anyone coming into the market setting up multi billion rand infrastructure and being able to compete with the Eskom grid in cost or supply for anything close to 20 years. Not a great business model but they are free to try."

The SA government has a monopoly on electricity. Therefore, competition is prohibited and, as such, you are not free to enter the coal / nuclear market.

Like I said, Eskom can not be called cheap.