Tuesday, 9 June 2009

I'm not the only one throwing around stats it seems...

This from this website

http://www.awesomesa.com/

This article comes from Justin from the organisation called Stop Crime … Say Hello. It does make you think.

Crime is not generally the subject of good news stories. I mean hard as one may try it is really quite tricky to make it light and entertaining.


But just for a moment or two, pop the Samsonite back in the cupboard, place the Qantas tickets in the dresser and put your feet up.

We have spoken on many an occasion of the fact that violent crime in South Africa (or certainly a very high percentage of it), occurs between people who know each other. Rowing spouses, drunken siblings, jilted lovers, angry teenagers, disgruntled staff, unhappy colleagues. Murders between people who know each other account for 82% of all our countries murders. Only 18% of our nation’s murders happen as a result of hijacking, or broadly speaking, ‘robbery’.

So, here’s the good news. If we live in peace, good-will, charity, fairness, generosity and in a way that resolves conflict speedily and satisfactorily with our staff, family and those we know, we have roughly a 0.007% chance of being murdered in a ’ random’ attack by a stranger.
Let’s put this in context so we can appreciate comparatively how small our chances are of being murdered:


- You are 300 times more likely to die in a car accident
- You are 15000 times more likely to die of smoking related disorders (if you smoke)


But get this….you are over twice as likely to commit suicide.


Rooster note : My stats before have been more conservative , but that's because I always assume worst case scenarios and use all murders as my base line , not only those associated with random crime. Therefore some of you would not I said the chances of getting murdered or commiting suicide where about the same.

So much rather stop smoking than emigrate – we are safer living here than puffing in Perth – if we live right.

Cheers
Justin

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

hey rooster

i have seen lately on za sucks
and some other sites they are claiming that the anc have released a movie about dr barnard
and it says it wasnt him who performed the worlds first heart transplant but his garden boy and
that it has been showing on the sabc?

now as i dont live in sa anymore
i cant prove or disprove it
i also contacted family in joburg
asking what is going on but as yet no reply ?

so whats the deal is this true or not ?

i dont want to post a link on
your site in case its a joke or a like and i look a fool but if u need one i am sure i can find it again asap

thanks go natal tonight agaisnt the lions

The Rooster said...

Sounds like bullsh!t to me. Why would the A.N.C go to such an extent. Look whaver those douchbags say take it with a pinch of salt. They're worse tha fisherman. If they said "claimed a black man did the first heart translant" , you can be sure there was some obscure book or something somewhere where a passing reference to the fact that a back man once served mr barnard tea or soemthing absurd and they just added their S.A.S touch.

These guys vilify and constantly talk about how they want all back people dead etc. Why would you think they could ever report anything in a rational and fair manner ? In this way they are their own worst enemy. They're white extremist nazi's (I'm not joking ) under the guise of "concerned citizens".....but they can never hold the illusion for long. Every second post is pure comedy.


And yes..the sharks are going to whip the pasty skinned , ricket legged lions.

Anonymous said...

hey rooster

shot for answering my question
naybe thats why my family in sa
ddint respond as they might be clueless to what the hell iam on about

so i did look at the awesome sa site
man sa is a still a pretty wonderfall country with mountains and awesome wild life stuff u wont find anywhere on earth Nand i knoiw i have been around

keep up the good work

jsut to let u know this is not my work but but it belongs to za sucks. if u go to the page u need to look at older posts to find the story.

but here is the doctor barnand
thing from za sucks i looked as far as i can see there is not a link for the story so how can it be proven is beyond me but here it is

Friday saw the release of a film which propagates the preposterous fantasy that Dr Chris Barnard didn’t actually perform the world’s first heart transplant…it was done by Hamilton Naki, his garden boy.
I kid you not folks. This is NOT a Hayibo type satire. The film Hidden Heart deals with the farcical life & times of Groote Schuur garden boy Hamilton Naki. Naki tended the gardens at this world famous hospital in the early sixties when a Dr Robert Goetz took pity on him and promoted him to vivisection lab cleaner and janitor. Goetz performed medical experiments on animals and Naki’s job was also to hold down animals being operated on. So, for the next 30 years, Naki remained on his gardener pay scale until his death in 2005, cleaning the lab and being a gopher for the doctors who performed this miracle of modern science.


Image left: “Doctor” Hamilton Naki

Except, it now turns out that Naki with his Standard 5 education was actually a black wunderkind who in truth performed the heart transplant operation, only for the evil White oppressor to steal all the glory from him! But wait, it gets better! While googling for some background info on Dr Naki (in 2003 he received an honorary medical doctorate from - who else - UCT) I stumbled across this bit of “history”:

Naki credits Goetz as one of his most important teachers. “He taught me all about surgical work, but unfortunately his stay wasn’t long as he had to return to Germany to pursue his research and I was left with the responsibility of teaching surgical research.”

The arrival of Professor Chris Barnard in 1956 was Naki’s second big break. “Barnard began to introduce to South Africa the new techniques of open heart surgery and cardiopulmonary bypass surgery, which he had learned in the US,” says Hickman. Naki initially acted as Barnard’s anaesthetist, where he impressed the heart surgeon with his enthusiasm and an incredible ability to learn, despite his lack of formal education. Within months, he had been appointed Barnard’s principal surgical assistant.

“Despite his limited education, he had an amazing ability to learn anatomical names and recognise anomalies,” Hickman says. Apart from a skilled assistant, Naki cherishes his role as an educator. “In my so-called career as a surgical research lecturer, I taught more than three thousand professors,” he says proudly.

Anaesthetist and chief surgical ssistant, and thereafter a surgical research lecturer who trained three thousand professors, all with a Standard 5 education? Clearly Dr Naki was so innately brilliant, he didn’t NEED any education!

Wikipedia quotes Dr Barnard as allegedly saying that “Naki had a steadier hand and superior technical ability than I had”.

In the movie, several interviews are held with Naki. Early on, he claims

i didnt put the whole story on rooster it wont fit but u get the message

Anonymous said...

How can you, Rooster two posts earler make out as if Child Rape is classed for all girls under 18, thereby implying that the children being raped are grown women and in your words were probably looking for it. You seem to pretend that all women rape victims were crying rape after consensual sex. The link below is from today.
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=vn20090610115606940C910323

Rooster you are a disgusting human being. You condone rape and make it out to be women asking for it or pretend thousands of child rape away in your skewed sense of "objectivity".

You have no morals, rooster. You are sick. No wonder you have no more supporters on here. HAHAHA...you will find them all over at South Africa Sucks. Nobody believes your mad rants and childish bullshit, Rooster. Grow up, get a life, get a real fucking job, moron.

The Rooster said...

How can you, Rooster two posts earler make out as if Child Rape is classed for all girls under 18, thereby implying that the children being raped are grown women and in your words were probably looking for it. You seem to pretend that all women rape victims were crying rape after consensual sex. The link below is from today.
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=vn20090610115606940C910323

Rooster you are a disgusting human being. You condone rape and make it out to be women asking for it or pretend thousands of child rape away in your skewed sense of "objectivity".

You have no morals, rooster. You are sick. No wonder you have no more supporters on here. HAHAHA...you will find them all over at South Africa Sucks. Nobody believes your mad rants and childish bullshit, Rooster. Grow up, get a life, get a real fucking job, moron.

-----------------------

Oh shut the fuck up. Rape , like you , if you're a middle classed south african is something you really don't need to worry about and certainly nothing I need to fucking defend. It plays no part in my life or in the lives of anyone I know. I don't defend it but I'm certainly not going to apologise for it or allow you to present south africa as a place where middle classed women are likely to be raped...bullshit !


You want to tell yourself that this country is a place where as a middle classed person you're likely to get raped , then that's your problem. It's a silly thing to believe and I think a person needs to WANT to believe this type of thing to convinve themselves it's true despite all he enecdotal evidence being to the opposite. This makes me conclude you don't live in South Africa anymore and feed on your fellow expats all wanking off together about the "terible" crime in S.A.


Now if you really care about black people and then come and tell me about the rape figures int the townships it's a different story. But it's quite the opposite. You hate black people and use the rape stat as some kind of badge of honour to defend your radical extremist racist view of the world and to try and convince other middle classed people that living in south africa is dangerous. You're a bullshitter...so get the fuck off your soap box. I'm not having it.

Anonymous said...

Your argument is even more pathetic and childish than you are Rooster. You have the brain of a child, a black child, at that.

You say, ” You hate black people and use the rape stat as some kind of badge of honour to defend your radical extremist racist view of the world and to try and convince other middle classed people that living in south africa is dangerous.”

No Rooster. No effort from my side required. The filthy Black rapists of children, domestic servants, middle aged women, old age women, students, just about every woman in South Africa is convincing the world that South Africa is a dangerous place. The ANC is doing nothing against this and are fully responsible for it. You Rooster, are defending and glorifying the ANC and has said many times they are the best government ever. That makes you complicit you sick fuck.

You further say, “I think a person needs to WANT to believe this type of thing to convinve themselves it's true despite all he enecdotal evidence being to the opposite.”
First of all it is “Anecdotal” and “Convince”...fucking simple minded doos.

So all those Newspaper reports and crime stats are all “Anecdotal”???

Your head is up your arse you pathetic piece of shit. You better hope you never end up in prison, Rooster, because you will come out of there with a new found consideration for your wife’s or girlfriend’s needs, because you will know exactly how it feels like to be a woman.

Garry said...

I took heart from this post. i love SA and try to stay positive

but

I know that there are 50 murders per day, so does that mean that 15,000 (300 X 50) people per day die in car crashes and that 750,000 (15,000 X 50) people per day die of smoking related disorders.

Jeez! Now I'm terrified.

PS I know nothing of maths or statistics. I can barely add up.

The Rooster said...

I took heart from this post. i love SA and try to stay positive

but

I know that there are 50 murders per day, so does that mean that 15,000 (300 X 50) people per day die in car crashes and that 750,000 (15,000 X 50) people per day die of smoking related disorders.

Jeez! Now I'm terrified.

PS I know nothing of maths or statistics. I can barely add up.

------------

Firstly I never said it was 300 times. But anyway what you've conveniently left out is the ammount of people who drive/amount of cars in the country. You need to divide the factor in to make your equation vaid. As far as smokin is concerned he's probably talking about heart disease...and he's not claiming that's that a per year stat....so you're either pretty dumb or useless at statistics.

Garry said...

"Firstly I never said it was 300 times.

Let’s put this in context so we can appreciate comparatively how small our chances are of being murdered:

- You are 300 times more likely to die in a car accident


Sorry mate, you did.

But anyway what you've conveniently left out is the ammount of people who drive/amount of cars in the country. You need to divide the factor in to make your equation vaid."

No-one said anything about people who drive/amount of cars in the country. I expected that to be factored into the figure.

Anyway, now i'm more confused

What about people who cross the road or travel in taxis? That just about includes the whole population.

is death under these circumstances counted?

I might be dumb and/or know nothing about statistics but this stat still seems a bit suspect to me.

Garry said...

There are 14200 road deaths annually
http://www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/News/0,,2-7-1442_2438645,00.html

or 14200/365 = 38.9 per day

There are 52 Murders per day
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1674391,00.html

If we accept your figure of 18% by total strangers

52 X 0.18 = 9.36 and 38.9/9.36 = 4.2

So according to my calc, you are 4.2 times more likely die on the road than to be murdered by a stranger.

The Rooster said...

There are 14200 road deaths annually
http://www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/News/0,,2-7-1442_2438645,00.html

or 14200/365 = 38.9 per day

There are 52 Murders per day
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1674391,00.html

If we accept your figure of 18% by total strangers

52 X 0.18 = 9.36 and 38.9/9.36 = 4.2

So according to my calc, you are 4.2 times more likely die on the road than to be murdered by a stranger.

-----------------


Not my stat. It's some guy named justin's stat. But your road death scenario is not taking many variables into account.

Firstly you can only count those who drive in a car almost every day. That divides our population down by a lot as a tiny % have or drive cars. A single accidents can have many victims , so the chances of dying in an accident is not reflected by the ammount of deaths.

You see...you're biased and not comparing apples with apples. 4.2 my ass.

The Rooster said...

"Firstly I never said it was 300 times.

Let’s put this in context so we can appreciate comparatively how small our chances are of being murdered:

- You are 300 times more likely to die in a car accident


Sorry mate, you did.


------------------

Nope..some guy named Justin did. The context I posted it was quite clear.

And regarding your other question I don't know if pedestrian deaths were included in the figure.

But keep working at the stats...try factor in anything. Read my old articles where I cam eup with some very interesting stats about yor chances of getting murdered in south africa.

Anonymous said...

Listen you dumb fucks, the only reason 82% of murders are committed by those you know, is because those are the one's they catch. The rest are unsolved, and the victim is dead. Statistics 101.

WNW said...

Statistics are are numbers that can be manipulated to give you the outcome you most desire. It is easier to fudge numbers than actually tackle the problem.
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=15&art_id=nw20090624201657751C772155
I know a number of high level members of the police/security sector, and crimes are down graded to hide the truth - so as not to spread fear and panic. It is vital not to scare off investors and visitors. Very little comfort for the 30 000+ murdered every year - not 18500 published by the decievers in government. Sit back and relax at your own peril.

The Rooster said...

Statistics are are numbers that can be manipulated to give you the outcome you most desire. It is easier to fudge numbers than actually tackle the problem.
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=15&art_id=nw20090624201657751C772155
I know a number of high level members of the police/security sector, and crimes are down graded to hide the truth - so as not to spread fear and panic. It is vital not to scare off investors and visitors. Very little comfort for the 30 000+ murdered every year - not 18500 published by the decievers in government. Sit back and relax at your own peril.


-------------


Oh dear, Not one of these "cuplable homicide is reall murder" buffoons again. Lisen guys...no matter how much you need murder to be higher than it really is to get your dicks hard, the fact remains...we have 18000 murders a year...and that's already a lot. Does your blood lust never end ?

Culpable homicide is not homicide. Simple as that. I'm not going to explain why because most rational people know the difference. Do a brief wikipedia for the terms and educate yourselves.

The Rooster said...

Listen you dumb fucks, the only reason 82% of murders are committed by those you know, is because those are the one's they catch. The rest are unsolved, and the victim is dead. Statistics 101.

--------------------


I have never used that stat to come up with my numbers for exactly the reason you state. How could they possibly determine what proportion knew their killers unless they caught everyone (which they clearly don't).

For the same reason those people iventing silly stats about the "real murder rate" $so they can get their dicks hard in morning are to be laughed off. There's no statistical backing for it and it's an element of their sinister bloodlust drenched imaginations.