Friday 30 January 2009

S.A not heading for recession,

That's rights folks, unlike my gamma ray exposed hairline , S.A is no currently heading for a recession.

Unlike those of you who live in those godforsaken countries dripping in euotrash/rednecks...or even worse....australians, we South Africans who still live here are awesome people. There's no point I'm trying to make with the above statement, it serves only as a method for me to once again point out what softcock w@nkers you are. And being awesome people, you'll find unlike you wimps ,little things like "recession" are simply swatted away by the mere undeniable superior Aura of just being a local South Africa.

That's the way I see it anyway, but here's how an economist sees it (for those of you who ejoy your news with a little more data and a little less "go f#ck yourselves). Anyway....read away. I'm going to watch us whip aussie again in cricket with our b team wile you go wipe the vomit off the streets and clean out the beer glass with your dish cloth for minumum wage , fighting the urge not to strangle yourself with it to just end the miserable universal fart that is your expat life.

Johannesburg - South Africa could just skim the recession affecting developed economies thanks to some "shock absorbers" that could cushion the fall, says an economist.

Speaking at a briefing on Thursday, Rand Merchant Bank's chief economist Rudolf Gouws said the buffers protecting the slowing South African economy are the rand's flexibility, falling interest rates, rising real household income, a social safety net, infrastructure and the 2010 Fifa World Cup football tournament which will be hosted in SA.

However, economic growth - as measured by SA's gross domestic product (GDP) - will be barely positive towards later this year, according to Gouws, who said that he expected it to only recover "somewhere in 2010".

He said that SA has not escaped the global slowdown that has plagued economies like the US and UK with a recession, despite some experts saying that there could be decoupling between first-world economies and developing ones. "Decoupling is a myth," said Gouws.
Gouws said that the years prior to 2008 consisted of a commodity and housing boom, and economies got 'greedy'.

The unprecedented rise in housing prices resulted in consumers going on a credit binge - aided by lax lending rules - as the rising equity in their homes supported their credit-based purchases of items like cars and plasma televisions.

"In SA, households borrowed too much and saved too little, and were granted credit easily [before tighter lending criteria introduced through the National Credit Act came into place]. We spent more than we had available on our balance sheets and were actually not saving.
"At some point, things had to catch up. The interest burn is overwhelming," said Gouws.
"It's going to be tough and rough but I do believe it's a necessary adjustment to the excesses we had before".

Gouws noted that the slowdown in consumer price inflation was an indication that the real economy was growing more slowly than the potential economy. The key measure of inflation targeted by the SA Reserve Bank, CPI, would be within government's desired range of 3% to 6% "pretty soon", Gouws said.

The bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) started cutting rates in December 2008, and economists are suggesting that the committee could cut rates by between 50 basis points and 100 basis points when it meets in early February.

Be careful what you wish for ..

Gouws said that a lot of South Africans are hoping for a big cut, "but you have to be careful what you wish for", he said.

Even though a decline in retail sales and manufacturing production are indicating a 100 basis-point cut, the country's current-account deficit remains a major policy consideration.

"The only times in which we've cut interest rates in the past is when our current account is running either a surplus or a very small deficit," he said, adding that if the MPC had to aggressively cut rates, it would raise imports versus exports, cut domestic savings in relation to investment and increase domestic spending.

If SA had strong exports, the country would be wealthier as it would earn more from foreign importers. As importers would be charged in rands, the currency would be in demand which would strengthen its value, which gives SA citizens benefits to import other country's goods as they would be less expensive, in foreign exchange terms.

By cutting rates, there is a danger that the rand could lose its value which impacts exports negatively, as SA citizens wouldn't earn as much when they sell goods overseas because of foreign exchange losses, and SA importers would lose out on stronger currency benefits as it would be more expensive to import goods with a weaker currency.

Aggressively cutting rates could increase domestic spending which could lift inflation. This, in turn, could affect SA's purchasing power parity (PPP) against developed economies like the US, said Gouws.

PPP is a theory of exchange rate determination and a way to compare the average costs of goods and services between countries. Should a consumer buy something in one country, it is very likely that the same good won't cost the same somewhere else as a result of economic fundamentals like demand and supply.

PPP solves this problem by taking some international measure and determining the cost for that measure in each of the two currencies, then comparing that amount.

Gouws said SA's purchasing price parity is merging with that of the US.

"So the rand is falling at a slow rate because PPPs are merging. It's important to keep inflation down because we don't want our PPP to drop too much against that of the US. I don't think the rand will drop much when interest rates come down, but then again, I don't think the MPC will not drop rates off a cliff," said Gouws.

Despite a gradual economic recovery in 2010, Gouws believes there will still be imbalances that need addressing. "The market shouldn't expect things to pick up too quickly."

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't agree with that analyst. Trevor Manuel has already indicated that, while it is possible that SA can avoid the recession, it is unlikely. In fact, a number of companies have closed as a result of global problems.

It is very unlikely that SA will miss the effects of a recession. But we can hope for the best anyway.

Also, this will be my only comment on this site, since interacting with someone who relies so heavily on cussing and insulting as a means of trying to look all cool and irreverent and stuff, is terribly childish and about as stimulating as debating macroevolution with a drunk taxi driver.

Enjoy your oral sex, mate.

Anonymous said...

hi roostetr

i know this is off topic but can u use your rooster powers and get rid of this oke this stofile

department of sport and recreation’s claim that they own the rights to the Springbok emblem is false.

Owen Dean, trademark specialist at legal firm Spoor & Fisher, confirmed that it is the property of the South African Rugby Union (Saru). This contradicts the minister of sport Makhenkesi Stofile’s claim that it is the property of the government.

Beeld reports that Dean investigated trademark registration numbers supplied by the department and found them to be invalid.

“I can give you the registration numbers,” Stofile said at the time. “We own the emblem. It was registered for the small Bok, the big Bok, the Bok jumping to the right, the Bok jumping to the left …”

Deans, however, said all five registration numbers supplied by the government were invalid. Deans found that Saru had registered the emblem first, and explained that Saru would be able to declare it invalid at any time, had government registered it correctly.

The registrations had also expired because the department had neglected to pay renewal fees.

Stofile’s spokesperson Lerato Mogorosi maintains that government owns the emblem, insisting that Stofile had repeatedly tried to clarify the “misperception” about the emblem’s true ownership.

viva the sprinbok

Anonymous said...

miniuam rage

rooster

as bar staff here in western australia u get up to 21 dollars an hour that 126 rand an hour that a very hig hwage

my bro build houses and get 30 aussie dollars an hour that like 180 rand an hour where is sa some poor black guy probably get 5 rand an hour my bro get like 1000 aussie dollar a week laying bricks not bad work here bus drivers in aussie get 21 dollars and hour with as much overtime as u like
i know a namibian bus driver here thats wat he gets piad u wouldnt get that in sa driving buses

Anonymous said...

plumbers in aussie can get 40 dollars an hour

thats 240 rand an hour

no such thing as this minaim wage utalk bout

labour is expensive in first world countrys

Anonymous said...

well done to sa cops

Durban - Eight suspected robbers were shot dead and a passing motorist, a bystander and a policeman wounded during a shootout in Durban on Friday morning.

Police spokesperson Inspector Michael Read said the heavily-armed gang robbed the Chicago Meats butchery in Queen Street at 08:00 and fled the scene.

"After the robbery, the registration of the car was circulated on police radio when the car was spotted by members of the Durban Flying Squad in the Umbilo area."

A car chase ensued.

"The suspects opened fire on police and police returned fire."

All eight robbers were shot dead.

Witnesses told police frantic pedestrians ran for cover as stray bullets flew through the air.

Like something out of a movie

"Shocked motorists also stopped their cars in the middle of the road when they saw what was happening," said a police officer at the scene.

"It is horrific. These gunmen did not care who would get injured... they just fired as many rounds of ammunition as they could."

ER24 paramedics spokesperson Derrick Banks said the scene, at the corner of Maydon and Francois Road in Umbilo, was "something out of a movie" with some bodies scattered on the road.

Three injured survivors - a police officer, a motorist and a bystander - were taken to a local hospital for treatment.

Banks said the motorist was struck in the chest by a bullet that passed through his windscreen. The bystander was grazed by another bullet.

The scene had been cordoned off as police searched for more evidence. David Brandsma, the owner of Chicago Meats, said the gang had confronted four security guards and the manager and robbed them at gunpoint.

As the gang fled the butchery, the guards and manager were able to get the car's registration number.

"They phoned 10111 and gave them the car registration details... and we are now informed that they were caught."

Brandsma said this was the third time the butchery had been robbed in the past six weeks. He was unable to confirm exactly how much was taken on Friday.

No further serious injuries were reported.

Read said the gang had already been positively linked to two armed robberies in Umbilo. The car they were fleeing in had been hijacked.

Anonymous said...

This brain-drain is causing increasing problems because most of the emigrants are skilled engineers who used to keep the municipal infastructures going. More than 80% of the country's engineers have already left since 1994. In an effort to get them back, Solidarity trade union has launched a Homecoming Campaign of their own - and hope that Buthelezi's song might bring at least some of these families back to South Africa, to show them that the attitudes against whites are beginning to change.

African National Congress president Jacob Zuma said on one video that 'Afrikaners are the only white tribe of Africa'. He added that they were 'necessary to turn South Africa into a better place'. However he also recently announced elsewhere that he definitely did not want to drop the party's black-economic-empowerment programme which is chasing Afrikaners from the country at such a huge rate.

COPE-leader Mosioua Lekota -- in a direct swipe at the ANC-party’s political-cronyism - said his party 'was not prepared to appoint people only because of their party-political affiliations, but that we demand that people are capable of doing the jobs.'

Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille said that 'the poorest always suffer the most when state-officials don't do their jobs properly, because then they don't get the opportunity to improve their lives'. http://www.solidaritysa.co.za/Tuis/wmview.php?ArtID=2115

The Rooster said...

plumbers in aussie can get 40 dollars an hour

thats 240 rand an hour

no such thing as this minaim wage utalk bout

labour is expensive in first world countrys

-----------


That's not big money in S.A. You're out of touch. Plus ou forgot to mention a little thing called cost of living. You're fooling nobody you blue collar scum.

Anonymous said...

well actually if u get 40 aussie dollars an hour cost of living is nothing

Anonymous said...

yeah but the black guy who does all the work gets nothing 5 bucks and hour

and the boss makes all the money

and thats the point a labourer in aussie makes a big living something u couldnt do in sa unless u ran the business eveb brick layers here earn tons
unless your the boss in sa i bet the blacks there got hardly anything

Anonymous said...

Hoe ry die Boere sit-sit so…

Anonymous said...

January 29 2009 -- The South African electorate is facing a presidential election early this year - and parties are gearing up to woe one of the least-liked electorates on the planet: the country's 3-million besieged Afrikaner whites.

Solidarity trade union got the ball rolling by inviting a large range of political leaders to their video-forum to introduce them to Afrikaner voters. And the one leader who immediately stood out from the crowd was Inkatha Freedom Party leader, the widely-respected Zulu prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi.

On this video, Buthelezi sings a whopping good version of the charming 19th century Voortrekker song called 'Watch how those Farmers ride'... “Hoe ry die Boere sit-sit so…’

Many Afrikaners say that this peaceful song by Buthelezi is a direct oppositive of the fear they feel when listening to African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma's http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Zuma warlike 'bring me my machine gun' song See


The eighty-year-old Buthelezi's crystal-clear rendition brought the Afrikaners in the audience to their feet in a rousing ovation. Buthelezi started singing this charming song at public meetings about a year ago during a forum about the large-scale emigration by young Afrikaner families.

This brain-drain is causing increasing problems because most of the emigrants are skilled engineers who used to keep the municipal infastructures going. More than 80% of the country's engineers have already left since 1994. In an effort to get them back, Solidarity trade union has launched a Homecoming Campaign of their own - and hope that Buthelezi's song might bring at least some of these families back to South Africa, to show them that the attitudes against whites are beginning to change.

The Rooster said...

yeah but the black guy who does all the work gets nothing 5 bucks and hour

and the boss makes all the money

and thats the point a labourer in aussie makes a big living something u couldnt do in sa unless u ran the business eveb brick layers here earn tons
unless your the boss in sa i bet the blacks there got hardly anything

--------------


Cruel but true. An enterprising mind and an amering market will see you augh at the poor sod earning 40 aussie dollars an hour. Thar's like 200 rand an hour isn't it ? For an hour or work ? Fucking keep it MATE.

The Rooster said...

January 29 2009 -- The South African electorate is facing a presidential election early this year - and parties are gearing up to woe one of the least-liked electorates on the planet: the country's 3-million besieged Afrikaner whites.

Solidarity trade union got the ball rolling by inviting a large range of political leaders to their video-forum to introduce them to Afrikaner voters. And the one leader who immediately stood out from the crowd was Inkatha Freedom Party leader, the widely-respected Zulu prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi.

On this video, Buthelezi sings a whopping good version of the charming 19th century Voortrekker song called 'Watch how those Farmers ride'... “Hoe ry die Boere sit-sit so…’

Many Afrikaners say that this peaceful song by Buthelezi is a direct oppositive of the fear they feel when listening to African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma's http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Zuma warlike 'bring me my machine gun' song See


The eighty-year-old Buthelezi's crystal-clear rendition brought the Afrikaners in the audience to their feet in a rousing ovation. Buthelezi started singing this charming song at public meetings about a year ago during a forum about the large-scale emigration by young Afrikaner families.

This brain-drain is causing increasing problems because most of the emigrants are skilled engineers who used to keep the municipal infastructures going. More than 80% of the country's engineers have already left since 1994. In an effort to get them back, Solidarity trade union has launched a Homecoming Campaign of their own - and hope that Buthelezi's song might bring at least some of these families back to South Africa, to show them that the attitudes against whites are beginning to change.

-------------


Sorry you lost me at the part where you started to expect me to care abou afrikaaners. Good fucking lot of caring they did for the rest of the country.

Anonymous said...

Buthelezi

is a really sharp guy with his head
screwed on straight

not like the anc whi deny crime and aids

i would want the ifp for president

Anonymous said...

The arrival of the 500-days-to-go-to-Fifa-2010 mark is likely to see an escalation of excitement for football’s World Cup but few seem to realise that South Africa’s big test will come a lot sooner.
And, before you misconstrue the headline on this column, it is not about elections and a political landscape in turmoil.

No what I’m referring to is a sporting double whammy that few, if any, countries have attempted and which will provide a searching examination of the country’s ability to cope with soccer’s biggest showpiece.

And that event, two events actually, is only about 120 days away – the concurrent presentation of the 13th British and Irish Lions rugby tour and the Fifa Confederations Cup of soccer.

The rugby tourists from the British Isles will be here in late May and play their first match (against a Highveld XV at the Royal Bafokeng Stadium) on May 30 while the footballers, representing eight national teams (the winners of each of the six Fifa confederation championships plus the current World Cup champions and the host country) will start arriving in early June and start their tournament on June 14.

The Lions tour is generating enormous anticipation. Andre Homan, SA Rugby’s man in charge of the tour project, says 30 000 UK fans have already confirmed official packages and estimates that an additional 20 000 making their own travel arrangements can be added to that number.

The visiting countries in the Confederations Cup are Italy (the current world champions), Spain, Brazil, Egypt, Iraq, New Zealand and the USA and even though soccer fans might hold back in favour of travelling to South Africa in 2010 a good number will arrive to put great pressure on transport, accommodation, security and stadium infrastructures.

Much of the construction in progress for Fifa’s World Cup will be incomplete which will make the trial run that much tougher.

However there is an upside. Rugby fans in the UK and Ireland are by and large a well-heeled bunch so they will provide a bonanza for the tourism industry. Our aim should be to turn them all into ambassadors and promoters of all the wonderful things we have to offer and our ability to cope with a large influx of visitors and ensure that they have a really good time.



lets hope sa passes the test good article

Anonymous said...

More than 80% of the country's engineers have already left since 1994.

so how many have come back?

Anonymous said...

Ten years earlier In 1994, there were 85,000 'white' commercial farmers with 1,2-m fulltime workers living on commercially-owned private farms - which in 1994 occupied less than 6% of the TOTAL SA land surface, according to the daily CIA satellite observations of the SA landscape. In 2008, the CIA observations noted that no more than 0.67% of the total land surface now is used for irrigated crop farming -- and that South Africa has over the past ten years, shifted from being a major food-exporter to a major food-importer, causing a negative currency-exchange rate. A full 94% of the total SA land surface has always been too infertile/too arid for commercial crop-farming. Expose: How the ruling ANC regime has social-engineered famine in South Africa

Anonymous said...

28 2009 - The South African Jewish Board of Deputies have filed a hate-speech complaint against the country's foreign affairs deputy-minister Fatima Hajaig. The SA Press Association says the charge was lodged with the local human rights commission over a public speech by Hajaig.

She reportedly said during a speech in Lenasia, an area comprised mostly of Asian-South Africans south of Johannesburg, on January 14 that '

'they (Jews) control America, no matter which government comes into power, whether Republican or Democratic, whether Barack Obama or George Bush...'"Their control of America, just like the control of most Western countries, is in the hands of Jewish money and if Jewish money controls their country then you cannot expect anything."
Zev Krengel of the Jewish board of deputies said they decision to lodge this complaint was not taken lightly.
"There had not been any realistic alternative.Not since the era of pro-Nazi Nationalist MPs more than half a century ago had such statements been made against Jews by a senior government official."

Board director Wendy Kahn described the alleged comments as "classic anti-Jewish stereotyping and conspiracy-theory mongering". She said such comments were typically used by those seeking to portray Jews as scheming, manipulative and disloyal to the countries in which they lived.

"The Jewish community is outraged by such a public display of bigotry by a senior government representative. "As South African citizens, we cannot allow this kind of comment to be brought into this country."

Foreign affairs spokesman Ronnie Mamoepa was 'unaware of the Board's complaint.'
When asked if the department would investigate the allegations, Mamoepa responded by saying Hajaig was in Japan at the moment, attending the SA-Japan Partnership Forum. see http://www.dfa.gov.za/docs/2009/japa0126.html

However, he added, 'the SA government of which Hajaig is a member of has committed itself to fighting all forms of racism in all its manifestations, including anti-semitism."

The Democratic Alliance has called for Hajaig to be sacked if she did not offer an immediate public apology. Democratic Alliance opposition party MP Tony Leon said that it was incumbent upon Hajaig to immediately apologise to the people of South Africa in general, the Jewish community in particular, and to US President Barack Obama.'

"In this regard, it is telling that more than two weeks after she was requested to apologise by, amongst others, Zachie Achmat (of the Treatment Action Campaign, as well as the TAC’s Nathan Geffen, and Guy Berger, she has still not seen fit to do so.
"This makes it clear that she feels absolutely no contrition, nor believes her comments to have been offensive."

Anonymous said...

Two South African political parties this week lodged two seperate lawsuits – one in the Constitutional Court and one at the High Court in Cape Town -- to try and obtain voting rights in the forthcoming presidential elections for the country's more than 1,2-million South Africans citizens, mostly whites, who are forced to work abroad due to the poor economic opportunities at home – whites are barred from the entire labour market by law.

This week, a formal application will be submitted to the Constitutional Court on behalf of Willem Richter, pictured left -- a 27-year-old South African schoolteacher who is temporarily working in Surrey, UK -- by the SA opposition party Freedom Front Plus.

And the opposition Democratic Alliance has also launched an application at the High Court – inviting the Freedom Front Plus to also join them in this effort. They are seeking to ‘ensure that South Africans who are temporarily living abroad may cast their vote,’ said Democratic Alliance MP James Selfe.

"According to the current regulations Richter, as well as the majority of South Africans just like him who are living and working abroad, again may not vote in this year's elections. The FF+ party will be submitting an urgent application on Richter's behalf to have the regulations declared unconstitutional," said Dr Pieter Mulder, leader of the FF+ party.

Their urgent application at the Constitutional Court demands that the Electoral Act be declared unconstitutional. “Restrictions placed on expat voters are a purposeful way to exclude their votes, ’ Mulder said. http://www.vryheidsfront.co.za/

Both parties had already started lodging requests for adjustments to Independent Electoral Commission’s voting rules for expats with the IEC’s Brigalia Bam. Some ‘minor adjustments’ were then made, said the Freedom Front Plus – but it’s still well-nigh impossible for the vast majority of South African expats to vote at foreign embassies, where polling booths are only being set up for embassy personnel and their relatives.

DA leader Helen Zille said that 'all citizens living abroad should have the opportunity to vote in elections at home, beginning with the 2009 election. The right to vote is enshrined in the Constitution; as such the IEC has a duty to give effect to the right."http://www.da.org.za/?p=1028

The South African Electoral Act now disqualifies large numbers of South Africans from casting their vote only by ‘reason of their geographical location’ – although the Constitution states that "every adult South African citizen" has the right to "vote in elections for any legislative body established in terms of the Constitution".

Legal precedent suggests that a legal challenge to the Electoral Act could be successful, expert Suzanne de Vos says.

"The Constitutional Court has said that the right to vote is fundamental to democracy, and that this required proper arrangements to be made for its effective exercise," said De Vos.
This meant the legislature and the executive should provide the legal framework, infrastructure and resources for free and fair elections.

"South African citizens who live abroad can argue that their constitutional right to vote is being infringed because the Electoral Act in effect denies them a right to vote.
"If such an application is brought, the government will have to provide solid reasons why these citizens are being denied their right to vote as they will have to show that the limitation of this right is justified in terms of the limitation clause in the Bill of Rights," said De Vos.
Independent Democrat party leader Patricia de Lille said that in the 2003 elections, ‘the government's excuse was that it lacks the resources to accommodate overseas citizens,’ adding that this was"unacceptable", as ‘the same resources that made provision for government officials abroad should and could also be used to facilitate the voting procedure for non-government employees..

Even prisoners and criminals can vote… but not white expats…

She said prisoners awaiting trial were allowed to vote, and most certainly other South African citizens who are out of the country should also have this privilege.

If South Africans abroad could vote it would 'impact on election results…’

Foreign affairs spokesman Ronnie Mamoepa says while ‘it is impossible to determine how many South Africans live abroad, t is arguable that if all South Africans outside the country were able to exercise their voting rights, these voters could make a measurable impact on the election results.’ http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=15&art_id=vn20090126112823582C534504

This fact also explains the fact that none of those other political parties which primarily cater for black voters, seem to have any concerns whatsoever about this unconstitutional disenfranchisement of so many top-educated South Africans who now have to work abroad.

The reason for this unconcerned attitude among parties with a mainly black voters’ base, is not hard to guess: most of the expats are whites, and the majority of these ‘whites’ are Afrikaans-speakers: people who by law are also being denied access to the South African job market, because of their paler skin-colour.

Especially the Afrikaners – who have no other homeland – have been handed a double-whammy after the 1994 election – not only are they being forced from the country because being whites. they are not allowed to work in the country of their birth by a vast variety of laws -- but they are also being denied voting rights under the lame excuse that the embassies ‘don’t have the facilities’.

The embassies did however have the facilities during the 1994 elections – so what has changed since then except a very clear plan to bar all whites from the electoral process in South Africa as much as possible? http://www.vryheidsfront.co.za/

Library of laws which bar South African whites from the labour market:

http://www.solidariteitinstituut.co.za/regstellendeaksiebiblioteek/index.php/Main_Page#Regstellende_Aksie_Biblioteek_.2F_Affirmative_Action_Library

The Rooster said...

Buthelezi

is a really sharp guy with his head
screwed on straight

not like the anc whi deny crime and aids

i would want the ifp for president

-----------


I don't like the A.N.C these days , but if you really think they deny aids and crime then please don't vote. You don't mean the intellectual requirements.

The Rooster said...

More than 80% of the country's engineers have already left since 1994.

so how many have come back?

---------

Do you live in a big south african city ? Look outside your window. I guarantee you'll see cranes and some big complex/high rise/mall/stadium/bridge etc going up somewhere.

Whospilt our fucking milk ?

It's a non issue...shut the fuck up about it...they leave making more demand for engineers here...more people take it up...or the fe that stay hey better paid......what the fuck is the problem ?

Anonymous said...

hurry up and die