Wednesday, 10 September 2008

Stat slap down number 4


Firstly I'm sorry about having to moderate the blog. I've taken it off moderation onto allowing those google accounts to comment. It really was my intention to allow anyone to post their views anon. without censorship or fear of reprival here , but some idiot kept posting the same comment over and over effectively ruining it. Hopefully in the near future we can try again, but for now I'm just going to keep a tab on it.

In the last post some guy came on and posted some statistics that typify the dishonesty we're faced with when trying to put an honest spin on what is going on in the country. The source he quoted proposed there were nearly 4 times as many murders in South Africa than there actually are. For his source to be correct it would require that the South African police , healthcare system (those responsible for death cetfificates) , insurance companies , the government and international watchdog orginisations etc were all conspiring together to unreport murder.

No , in fact that is absurd and silly and easily refuted by just doing the simple maths. 47 million people divided by 18 000 murders then factored into a rate per 100 000 comes in just under 40 people per 100 000. Fact ! End of story. Let me never have spend my precious time debunking utter horse manure like this again ....please.


(Edit : I went back to the website that he posted and found at least two other statistics for south African murders closer to sane...one was 49 (probably data 2 years old since crime has decreased a lot lately) and that's within plausibility. )

Anyway , it's mid week and that means it's time for some stat slap down.

Vacations and Educations

A question specifically to our British friends with whom many white South Africans have a shared heritage and culture. Where do you think is safer to Holiday ? The world reknown and considered safe destination of Thailand , Australia or South Africa ?

Now going by what you'd hear in the sensationalistic media, or dare I say from a white South African it seems almost an absurd question. Of course you'd feel it's much more dangerous to travel to South Africa.

Wrong. Very wrong.

In the past 4 years alone 17 British tourists have been murdered in Thailand. This figure is already extremely high (I can not think of even 3 in South Africa in that time , but I'll happily add those stats if someone can provide them) however it does not include many of the stream of suspicious "suicides" (balcony jumpings) often attributed to the corrupt Thai police/mafia. In fact while Thailand recieves only a small proportion of British Tourists (0.6%) it accounts for 10 % of their murders every year.

Now this is not to say Thailand is dangerous. Well it is 5 times higher than the british murder rate, but still small enough that you'd be silly to not travel there out of fear of being murdered. A tiny percentage of britons 420 000 travellers who go there year experience any crime. But what it does tell you is that it's more dangerous for a tourist than South Africa.

The stats I have for tourist arrivals From the UK in January to Jun 2008 are 250 000. I think we can AT LEAST double that given it does not include the December holidays and the rest of spring. So let's say South Africa gets 500 000 British tourists a year. I could not find any statistics for British tourists beings murdered in South Africa. In fact I made it through 5 pages of google until I came to a reference whereby it claims one man was killed in 2004. A lady was raped and someone was stabbed in the face with a knife. But the Thai figures would hugely esculate if I took those kind of incidents into account for them too. I'm sure it's more than just one , but it's certainly less than 10. To put this into context , Australia had 14 British tourist murders since 1994-2003 (I could not find any stats since then). Yes....folks...it's more dangerous for British tourists to visit Australia than South Africa too.

And Thailand and Australia are no exception. Most popular destinations for British tourists prove more than dangerous than South Africa. Notably Jamaica and the Carribean islands are proportionally highly dangerous places to visit compared with our country.

The data is taken over many years and certainly South Africa recieves a high share of British tourists. So what does it tell us ?

Well nothing new really. It just tells us what middle classed white South Africans already know : South Africa is a perfectly safe place if you just use the slighest bit of common sense... Ie : Don't hang around drunken sheebeens flashing your car keys , camara and cash and insulting people's mothers... and well...you'll be just fine.

So once again I hope my efforts haven't been wasted and at least maybe 1 person won't go perpertuating myths by warning people from visiting South Africa in the future. It's not dangerous to visit South Africa. You'll have a great time with geniunly friendly and lovely people of all descriptions. Ask yourself if you would let crime stop you from going to Thailand , Australia , Jamaica , Antingua, Barbados or Brazil. If not , then you definately should never let it stop you coming to South Africa. As a tourist you're much safer here.

I recently read a book by Ewan Mcgregor and his friend (forget the name) who biked through Africa. They spend a great time talking about how before they left people thought they were insane and mad and dosed them with the perception that Africa was a violent and sinsister place.

They end the book by basically saying what I'd say ......

" Utter bollocks !".

Africa is filled with some of the most gentle , warm and kind people you could ever hope to meet in this world. And it's waiting for you.

A few extra gems for you.

-99% of trourists who visit South Africa claim they would like to return. South Africa recieves extremely high repeat tourism number to justify this.
- South African tourism is growing three times faster that the global average.
- 98.5 % of tourists in South Africa report experiencing not even pretty crime. That is only 0.5% higher than Australia. (On average if you took 200 people to South Africa or Australia , only 1 more person would be a victim of some form of crime in South Africa than Australia. )
-Despite this , The south African minsitry of tourism estimates that we've lost 22 million tourists in the past few years due to needless scaremongering and misinformation about crime.

Given that 10 tourists conservatively pump on average enough needed money into South Africa to support two lower income families for a year, imagine the loss of potential jobs and much need income in the market? Imagine the potential investment lost ? Imagine how this money in the economy could have raised the social economic conditions of so many people and helped further bring down the crime rate ?

Sometimes I think you f#cking assholes want the country to fail. Anyway, I think we can all agree that once again I win. But who is keeping score anyway ?

(ps ...I am...Rooster : 57 - Haters : 0)

16 comments:

Lonslo said...

For those that are interested the official historical crime stats 1994 - 2008 are here. The table also shows you a daily average figure.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/5714630/South-African-Crime-Statistics

The Rooster said...

Thanks lonso. That's pretty thorough. I'm certainly all about airing our dirty laundry as long as we keep it in context.

The Rooster said...

We're 7000 murders a year down since 1994 ? Amazing how people still insist the crime rate is going up ? Really...what are they smoking ?

The Rooster said...

In fact murders and attempted murders are down by 13 000 since 1994 ....truly fantastic and really positive stuff.

Bantu Education said...

some idiot kept posting the same comment over and over

Isn't that exactly what you did on my blog?

Bantu Education said...

I've been to Thailand on numerous occasions and I agree that behind the smiles Thailand is a considerably more dangerous place than is commonly supposed.

But its also a very different kind of tourism - backpackers, drugs, sex with girls, sex with boys.

"Tourists" to Thailand, many of whom stay for months if not years by popping over the border and renewing their permits, get much more involved with the seedy side of Thai life and interact with Thai criminals and corrupt police much more than they would in SA.

If tourists to SA used black taxis, black trains, going with black prostitutes, and staying in black areas, then the murder rate would escalate hugely. But they dont - they stay in up-market white areas and, whether by intention or not, they wisely keep well away from black/coloured areas.

The fact of the matter is - they are protected by the "legacy of apartheid"..!

The Rooster said...

Me bantu education ? Please. I already have too much of a life to even manage time for this website , never the freaking less to spend it posting on others. I don't like your website but I didn't sabotage anyones ability to have their say on it either.

But keep it up if you must. Every attempt to sabotage my website is a direct sign that I'm winning the debate overall...because if you're resorting to hitting below the belt then you're intellecually ourgunned. It's pure affirmation that what I'm doing is both important and right.

The Rooster said...

Bantu Education. I've also been to thailand many times (most of Asia really). If you are talking about those that get caught up n the sex industry I hinted that I was not even mentioned their stats. It's well known in thailand that if you piss off the police you find yourself "commited suicide" by jumping off a balcony. Literally like 100 of those a year (450 british people die in thailand each year). The ones attributed to murder are backpackers and the like. Not the typical sex tourists you find.

But you're right..Thailand is one superficial , shallow and in your face hishonest place. The thai smile is one big exercise in salesmanship.

The Rooster said...

Bantu...do you deny that South Africa has less tourist murders than Thailand and Australia ?

We do...that's a cold fact.

To encourage people not to come to South Africa and to rather go there would be to endager their lives. Sounds crazy...but it's true. Do you admit that the web is full of people insisting that South Africa is dangerous for tourists...and furthermore...will you admit that is entirely false ?

Bantu Education said...

I agree with you that the danger is over-stated but, as I already said, tourist safety is largely, nay entirely, due to the "legacy of apartheid".

And any crime "statistics" coming from this Azanian guvMUNT are not to be trusted. Likewise in Thailand, because their tourist numbers would crash is the lemmings knew the real story.

The Rooster said...

The stats don't come from the government. They are verified and orginised by at least 5 different and independant orginisations. What do you propose ? They are all in on the conspiracy ? This is nonsense and i've mever seen anything even close to evidence for this other than outragious claims from people who'd love so see nothing more than this country burn.

Man points for admitting that the danger is over stated though.

G-man said...

Well Bantu, I did use "black taxis" over and over for 6 months and nothing happened. I think there is a lot of misconceptions about them, especially among white South Africans. When I got to SA in late 2006 I needed to get around, could not afford a car and noticed many blacks in Johbg using the minibus taxis. I figured I am not better than them, so I can use them too. I asked around what different hand signals to use to indicate to driver where I am trying to go and that was all there was to it.

The Rooster said...

G- Man ...that's the point. While it's a common made statement that "using black taxis is dangerous for white people" ..it can never be verified. There are simply not enough cases of whites being brave enough to test that statement. Just a typical example of the boogey man under the bed mentality clouding white peoples heads. Fear is a powerful thing.

With that said , tourists should remember that it's best not to flash your wares around poor and desperate people. And you're more likely to find them in communal taxis than other forms of transportation. It's not rocket science.

And while I wrote this article to prove the safety of trevelling to south Africa...I would be irresponsible to not point out that the fear mongering about south africa obviously plays a role in making tourists more cautious. Always err on the side of caution. Johanessburg for example , while being a vibrant , modern , beautiful city has areas which are very dangerous and should be avoided. (Just like new york for example...nothing more dramatic than that.)

Bantu Education said...

@Greg KB,

Your personal experiences of riding in black taxis and generally mixing with blacks are as meaningless as the empty boasts of heavy-smoking nonagerians.

Or a habitual drink-driver who "has never had an accident" when inebriated and even claims he drives BETTER when drunk..!

Or the "champagne lifestyle at beer prices" immigrant who survives 17 years in SA without the slightest harm coming to him.
(Thats me BTW - I am one of the few who moved from Australia to SA, partly (but not only) because my funds went much further in SA.

The difference between you and I greg is that, although I am obviously thankful that I (and my adopted family) have not (yet) suffered from black rule....I am fully aware that this is only an illusion which at any moment might be shattered. Blacks are pre-disposed to violence and criminality and this has nothing to with their supposed "poverty".
It is in their nature.

You, on the other hand, are content believe the mandelatopian multi-culti dream which promises
"equality" providing "everyone" (meaning "whites") makes the appropriate sacrifices.

There has to be a reason why (even after the huge increases of the last 5 years) well-located Cape Town apartments are still only ONE FIFTH the price of their Sydney equivalents and CT is (arguably) the more desirable of these 2 famously hedonistic cities.

If you sincerely believe that SA will eventually prosper under black rule then you should borrow as much as you can and get over here and invest everything in the cheap property, etc.

But then that would make you an "exploiter" wouldn't it?

G-man said...

The belief that "blacks are pre-disposed to violence" is based on pure ignorance, and is no different from what white racists here in US say about black Americans. Blacks are no more "pre-disposed" to that than whites are pre-disposed to be Charles Mansons or Jeffrey Dahmers.

The Rooster said...

Yes , I'm sorry Bantu but that's pure ignorance. Do I need to remind you of just a few of the things white people have done ?

Colonialism ? Slavery ? The crusades ? Burning witches at the stake ? The inqusition ? The romans ?

Get your head out of your arse. Maybe I should target this site to teach you people a little about social conditioning.