Wednesday, 10 September 2008
Stat slap down number 4
Firstly I'm sorry about having to moderate the blog. I've taken it off moderation onto allowing those google accounts to comment. It really was my intention to allow anyone to post their views anon. without censorship or fear of reprival here , but some idiot kept posting the same comment over and over effectively ruining it. Hopefully in the near future we can try again, but for now I'm just going to keep a tab on it.
In the last post some guy came on and posted some statistics that typify the dishonesty we're faced with when trying to put an honest spin on what is going on in the country. The source he quoted proposed there were nearly 4 times as many murders in South Africa than there actually are. For his source to be correct it would require that the South African police , healthcare system (those responsible for death cetfificates) , insurance companies , the government and international watchdog orginisations etc were all conspiring together to unreport murder.
No , in fact that is absurd and silly and easily refuted by just doing the simple maths. 47 million people divided by 18 000 murders then factored into a rate per 100 000 comes in just under 40 people per 100 000. Fact ! End of story. Let me never have spend my precious time debunking utter horse manure like this again ....please.
(Edit : I went back to the website that he posted and found at least two other statistics for south African murders closer to sane...one was 49 (probably data 2 years old since crime has decreased a lot lately) and that's within plausibility. )
Anyway , it's mid week and that means it's time for some stat slap down.
Vacations and Educations
A question specifically to our British friends with whom many white South Africans have a shared heritage and culture. Where do you think is safer to Holiday ? The world reknown and considered safe destination of Thailand , Australia or South Africa ?
Now going by what you'd hear in the sensationalistic media, or dare I say from a white South African it seems almost an absurd question. Of course you'd feel it's much more dangerous to travel to South Africa.
Wrong. Very wrong.
In the past 4 years alone 17 British tourists have been murdered in Thailand. This figure is already extremely high (I can not think of even 3 in South Africa in that time , but I'll happily add those stats if someone can provide them) however it does not include many of the stream of suspicious "suicides" (balcony jumpings) often attributed to the corrupt Thai police/mafia. In fact while Thailand recieves only a small proportion of British Tourists (0.6%) it accounts for 10 % of their murders every year.
Now this is not to say Thailand is dangerous. Well it is 5 times higher than the british murder rate, but still small enough that you'd be silly to not travel there out of fear of being murdered. A tiny percentage of britons 420 000 travellers who go there year experience any crime. But what it does tell you is that it's more dangerous for a tourist than South Africa.
The stats I have for tourist arrivals From the UK in January to Jun 2008 are 250 000. I think we can AT LEAST double that given it does not include the December holidays and the rest of spring. So let's say South Africa gets 500 000 British tourists a year. I could not find any statistics for British tourists beings murdered in South Africa. In fact I made it through 5 pages of google until I came to a reference whereby it claims one man was killed in 2004. A lady was raped and someone was stabbed in the face with a knife. But the Thai figures would hugely esculate if I took those kind of incidents into account for them too. I'm sure it's more than just one , but it's certainly less than 10. To put this into context , Australia had 14 British tourist murders since 1994-2003 (I could not find any stats since then). Yes....folks...it's more dangerous for British tourists to visit Australia than South Africa too.
And Thailand and Australia are no exception. Most popular destinations for British tourists prove more than dangerous than South Africa. Notably Jamaica and the Carribean islands are proportionally highly dangerous places to visit compared with our country.
The data is taken over many years and certainly South Africa recieves a high share of British tourists. So what does it tell us ?
Well nothing new really. It just tells us what middle classed white South Africans already know : South Africa is a perfectly safe place if you just use the slighest bit of common sense... Ie : Don't hang around drunken sheebeens flashing your car keys , camara and cash and insulting people's mothers... and well...you'll be just fine.
So once again I hope my efforts haven't been wasted and at least maybe 1 person won't go perpertuating myths by warning people from visiting South Africa in the future. It's not dangerous to visit South Africa. You'll have a great time with geniunly friendly and lovely people of all descriptions. Ask yourself if you would let crime stop you from going to Thailand , Australia , Jamaica , Antingua, Barbados or Brazil. If not , then you definately should never let it stop you coming to South Africa. As a tourist you're much safer here.
I recently read a book by Ewan Mcgregor and his friend (forget the name) who biked through Africa. They spend a great time talking about how before they left people thought they were insane and mad and dosed them with the perception that Africa was a violent and sinsister place.
They end the book by basically saying what I'd say ......
" Utter bollocks !".
Africa is filled with some of the most gentle , warm and kind people you could ever hope to meet in this world. And it's waiting for you.
A few extra gems for you.
-99% of trourists who visit South Africa claim they would like to return. South Africa recieves extremely high repeat tourism number to justify this.
- South African tourism is growing three times faster that the global average.
- 98.5 % of tourists in South Africa report experiencing not even pretty crime. That is only 0.5% higher than Australia. (On average if you took 200 people to South Africa or Australia , only 1 more person would be a victim of some form of crime in South Africa than Australia. )
-Despite this , The south African minsitry of tourism estimates that we've lost 22 million tourists in the past few years due to needless scaremongering and misinformation about crime.
Given that 10 tourists conservatively pump on average enough needed money into South Africa to support two lower income families for a year, imagine the loss of potential jobs and much need income in the market? Imagine the potential investment lost ? Imagine how this money in the economy could have raised the social economic conditions of so many people and helped further bring down the crime rate ?
Sometimes I think you f#cking assholes want the country to fail. Anyway, I think we can all agree that once again I win. But who is keeping score anyway ?
(ps ...I am...Rooster : 57 - Haters : 0)
Posted by The Rooster at 04:27