Saturday 12 July 2008

Debunking another S.A crime myth.

Walking into any pub/bar in South Africa and you can hear some of the most laughable things. When not talking about rugby you will find white South Africans telling each other interesting little things. One precious gem you see going around is the "South Africa has a higher murder rate than Iraq" myth.

It's easy to prove that Iraqis are dying at a rate that far exceeds South Africans. Depending on whose statistics you read there have been between 400 000 - 1 000 000 deaths in the period between just 2003-2006 iraqi deaths due to the war. I should really include the last two years which have been the most violent, but it's such a silly notion to debunk I don't even need to. Obvious to say they number is almost double what I'm using.

( source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War)

Let's not waste too much time putting this outlandish notion to bed. Let's be on the conservative side and call it an average of 150 000 deaths a year in iraq versus 18 000 in South Africa. Making iraq about 8 times more dangerous than South Africa (and about 8.4 times more dangerous than Washington Dc for perspective).

Now let's look at the American soldiers. 1 white south african dies a day due to violence. That's about the same as American soldiers (1 per day). Sounds pretty ominous if you state it like that doesn't it ? Let's dig a little deeper though.

Let's take these statistics in their basic form :

If there are 100 000 soldiers in iraq involved in active duty and that relates to a murder rate of 365 out of every 100 000 people a year, The murder rate of a White South African is 8 out of every 100 000 people. That makes South Africa 47 times safer than Iraq for a white person.

Remember iraq is not in an all out war. As a The soldiers there are glorified policemen. Many of the troops are support troops and do not see any combat. Anyway , 45 times is not a slight difference. Next time you down in the pub let your mates know how silly they are being.

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

No wonder you left out the past 2 years:

"In the two years since the Americans have been fighting in Iraq, 13,650 Iraqis, have been killed, many of them by terrorist attacks by their own countrymen. Others were by military action. That averages out at 6, 825 deaths per year in a population of 25 million."

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/articles/article.html?storyid=2063

What you did wrong stupid simian was to include the war into your figures.

Stupid is as stupid does in the words of Forrest Gump

Anonymous said...

Ja Kortpiel. Die BAAS.

Anonymous said...

Anon...you're cherry picking your data. I took the three best known surveys and assumed the lowest case they predicted. Why wouldn't I include the war in my figures ? That's the freaking accusation isn't it? That south africa is more dangerous than Iraq during war time. Spare me the insult to my intelligent of your spin please.

Anonymous said...

Jys verseker n gat tjommie? Nie waar nie? Nie n kaffertjie nie - ne? Of DAAI Engelsmantjie wat ons almal van weet?

Anonymous said...

Anon. I don't speak afrikaans. It sounds little someone trying to get flem from their throat , except angrier. No thanks. If you want a response then please speak in a civilised language. For example : english.

Anonymous said...

There is a story posted on SAS blog (that racist site that banned me from posting) about an Afrikaner who suffered from Alzheimer's who supposedly went into Shoprite, took a candy bar that he didn't pay for and supposedly a mob beat him to death. What do you think of this? I do not speak Afrikaans so I don't know if the SAS bloggers accurately translated the Beeld article. During my six months in South Africa, which was primarily in Johannesburg, but also in Eastern Cape for 3 days and in Cape Town for 5, I got the feeling that the majority of blacks do NOT harbor hatred of whites or Afrikaners. A minority do though, and part of it is due to hate that hate produced. Just my two cents though. I forgot to log in - this is Greg, the American doctoral student who went to SA from October 2006 through April 3, 2007.

Anonymous said...

Hey Greg. I'm sure you're having a hard time marrying the version of South Africa you experienced and the version these nazis portray. Don't worry. You're not suffering delusions. South Africa is a friendly , safe place (don't be out at night in certain areas obviously) and a perfectly sonderful place to live. These guys are irrational racists motivated out of a deep wish to see the country fail. The irony is they pretend to care about crime , but everytime they read about a white murder they get so excited they pee their pants , put it on their sites and throw out high fives. They live for it...it drives them...pure bloodlust.

Anonymous said...

You are either ignorant or, just like your president, you are also in denial! Now maybe you need to take note of the stats and once you have examined them I challenge you to tell me that South Africa in not the murder capital of the world. An average of "32,000" yes 32 000 violent deaths a year are officially recorded in South Africa - but the government severely censors crime statistics -- and the actual death rate could be twice the annual 32,000 recorded average. The rest of this horror story can be read on these official statistics

Link here for the Police stats in PDF format:

www.saps.gov.za/statistics/reports/
crimestats/2007/_pdf/rsa_total.pdf

NOTE: The actual murders are hidden by splitting 'murders' and 'culpable homicides' into two different categories - right at the top of the list they first show total murders, plus... way down the list they show the culpable homicides.
When taken together, the official number is huge - over 32,000 murders per annum. The USA by comparison, with 6 times our population, only has 16,000 murders per annum.

As ghastly as the official figures are, they’re most probably doctored. Interpol have South African murder statistics that are roughly double the official South African state statistics, while the South African Medical Research Council claims there are approximately a third more murders in South Africa than the official police statistics reveal.

Since 1994 South Africa has become the most murderous society on earth.

South Africa is the most violent country outside a war zone, with a staggering 300 000 murders in the last decade, even with probable under-reporting, “the highest recorded per capita murder rate in the world"

Three hundred thousand innocent men, women and children died horrible deaths since 1994.

You can tell me I'm exaggerating, you can deny the facts all you want, rgnuqthe truth is not going to go away, not now, not ever!

Anonymous said...

Actually cad-d-ace you're rambling like a mad conspiracy theorist. Are you a hollocaust denialist too like the rest of these Nazi's ?

The official murders are based on death cerrtificates that are regonised as valid by every agency and even insurance company in the world. The official numbers of murders are around 18 000. The gross majority of these murders happen in the poorest areas , to the poorest people. Therefore to compare the situation to the states is not apples with apples.Splice off the poor areas and compare and you will find that South Africa is just as safe as the united states.

By the way only a few countries in africa actually accurately record such statistics and that's why South Africa even gets into the list. Data for war burdered countries is not included. There simple is not data for the most dangerous parts of africa. Even with those countries excluded or not offering valid data we are the worlds 5th more murderous country. Places like columbia , Jamaica , venizuala and the likes have higher murder rates...and for the record...I believe it is perfectly safe in these countries too if you avoid the poorest parts.

Since 1994 we've become worse ? You really show your flawed thinking here...it's exactly the opposite. Crime rose for a efw years (nominally , not even a lot , but the media made is sound like it did) and since 2000 has decreased every year so that now the murder rate is the same as 1994. That's totally supported by all the available facts. So what you are saying is not only slightly wrong , it's the opposite of right.

300 000 people is a huge exagerattion. If you people really had a valid complaint you'd be able to make it without fabricating these ridiculous numbers.

Nice try...but F for Fail.

Anonymous said...

Thats no excuse for the murder stats, why are you ignoring the culpable homicides? Because it suits your lame argument!!

Anonymous said...

Places like columbia , Jamaica , venizuala and the likes DO NOT have higher murder rates... see stats Nationmaster link: www.nationmaster.com:80/index.php You are so fake, you have nothing whatsoever to back your lame theories, why not give us a link to the reference you are talking about. What about telling visitors to SA that their lives are in danger when they go to eat at a restaurant in SA.... 15 people have been killed in 687 attacks carried out on restaurants out of 3 000 members of the restaurant assoc of SA. Tourists and visitors you are not safe even to go out and eat at a restaurant in gangster Gauteng. Poor areas do not have restaurants, these attacks are carried out in affluent areas and in the hub of the Sandton CBD where the 5 star hotels are situated

Anonymous said...

All i can say about bovinerebel is the following:

Never Argue With An Idiot.
He'll Drag You Down To His Level And
Then Beat You With Experience.

(Dr. Alan Zimmerman)

Anonymous said...

My response is to Candace primarily. Why the hell would the SAPS be covering up murders? They may very well do that with other crimes, like they may doctor some robberies down to something else, but some police departments in US cities do that too. I hardly think that they would do that with murder rate, SA would then lose all credibility and the government knows they need foreign investors. In fact part of the problem in not alleviating poverty may be that they cater to foreign investors too much, but that's another topic. You say it is not safe to visit restaurants, and I did read the article about restaurants getting robbed 600 times a year and I think it is very tragic that a young man got shot dead at a Lion Park restaurant. But I went to restaurants many times in Rosebank, Auckland Park and at the one in Cradle of Humankind and nothing ever happened. I also noticed that on Friday nights the Sandton and Rosebank restaurants are full of people. Not to mention that in Cape Town - Long Street parties all night and people do not seem to give crime even a second thought, though it does happen. I agree that SA's crime rate is too high, but some areas are more dangerous than others. There is no way you can compare the relative lack of safety in Joubert Park (at least when I was there - that was the only time I got mugged) with relative safety of Rosebank or Sandton. I whole-heartedly agree that the crime rate is too high, there are too many house robberies and people should be safe in their homes. However, I do not think crime is out of control. Unfortunately, sites like SAS, like crimexpo that Neil Watson used to run until he was exposed as a liar, present a false picture, a picture of a place where as soon as you step out you are attacked or even killed. I was pleasantly surprised when I arrived in SA that is far from the reality. I was unpleasantly reminded four months into my trip when I got mugged in Joubert Park that it can and does happen, but most American cities also have their rough areas. So the bottom line is SA has a very serious problem with crime, but many people exaggerate and distort it for their own purposes.

Anonymous said...

Anon, you are so right. And this guy bovine has a LOT of experience being an idiot.

Greg, I'm a PhD student from SA. I have been here 26 years compared to your 2 years, or whatever the fuck. So I think my perspective on the crime would be more reliable than yours. I will leave this shithole when I graduate and go to a better country- not the US. Why don't you concentrate on your own fucked-up country the good-ol' US of A? and stop giving us your mindless comments. Why don't you try voting for a decent president?

I don't think we can generalize about black people having low IQ's. Look at USA - so many whites and they voted for George W (the biggest asshole on earth, followed closely by his half-brother Osama-from his dad's "relations" with an Afghanistani prostitue, Austin Powers' style...) TWICE!! Go figure...

Greg please stay home (USA) and practise your super "hero" powers and homeland security "Jericho" nuclear threat conspiracies. You are ridiculous. All yoll yanks are the problem with the world. Global warming, stupid presidents, Vietnam, Hiroshima, bad spelling, Dr Phil and racism. AND you are fucking everywhere... now on this blog as well, yeesh!

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Anonymous said...

Hey Greg. Thanks for putting things into perspective. I guarantee you these people who tell you nonsense such as "you can't even go to a restuarant safely" would not think twice about going out for dinner at one....what total ridiculous bullshit. What is the tourist murder rate Can ? 1 in a million ? 1 in 2 million ? Lower ? It's very low ! So how in the name of anything sane do you pretend south africa is a dangerous place to visit ? Honestly...explain that to me.


PS : I'm away for the next day so excuse me if things are a bit slow here.

Anonymous said...

Anon at 4 : 32....no one forcing you here you tosspot. If by shitty you mean "totally awesome" then my blog is veritable sewage factory.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 02:06 - posting that stuff a thousand times does not make you any less ingorant or any less of an idiot than you obviously are. How would you like it if I said "I hate all narrow-nosed honkies" a thousand times, even though I'm white. Actually, I don't hate anybody, hate is a wasted emotion, but some of you white racists can make a person's blood boil. No wonder the kids in Soweto exploded in anger in 1976.
To the anonymous PhD student - I am sorry you feel that way, I also appreciate that you view Americans as arrogant. Much of what you say there about our presidents - I agree with. Are you white or black? It does not really matter to me too much, but in my discussions with black South Africans I found that many make the distinction between the American government and American people. I have long had an interest in race relations and for better or worse I chose to focus on South Africa. And I wasn't there for 2 years, I was there for 6 months. I wish I had stayed for 2 years, when I left I was actually sad to leave, something about SA just pulls you in. I left after 6 months because of finanical constraints, as a doctoral student I am on a tight budget. My leaving had nothing to do with crime. What perspective on crime have you gained in 26 years - do share please.
Another reply I have to Candace and some others - it may very well be that white South Africans disproportionately bear the burden of house robberies. If so, this is directly due to legacy of apartheid and specifically to fact that whites tend to be the ones living in wealthier areas which these criminals targed. A recent report in Sunday Times and by Institute of Security Studies indicates that race plays no part in which house attackers target. Of course our racist friends at SAS conveniently dismiss these reports, but somehow I think the Sunday Times and ISS are much more reliable on crime than they are.

ZeroTolerance said...

For the record ......
The UCA Report on Murder in South Africa reveals that according to the official statistics, in the 44 years from 1950 to 1993, there was an average of 7036 murders per year. This covered the turbulent strife of the apartheid years of warfare, conflict, terrorism, riots and repression.

However, in the first eight years (of peace) of the new democratic dispensation, under the ANC, an average of 24 206 murders were committed each year. However, if the Interpol statistics are accepted, then the murder rate in South Africa during the ANC years has averaged 47 882 per year.

ZeroTolerance said...

Based on original source documents, government archives, the Central Statistics Service, Interpol, the South African Medical Research Council statistics, and many other sources. The Report casts serious doubt on the South African government’s claim that the murder rate has been decreasing.
Victims’ surveys have consistently uncovered between 60% and 70% more crime than reported by official sources. Upwards of 50% of crime in many serious categories goes unreported.

Statistical Discrepancies

While police crime statistics show that there were 21 683 murders in the year 2000, the Medical Research Council puts the figure at 32 482. The MRC’s estimate is close to the figure from the Department of Home Affairs, which is 30 068. This is a third more murders than reported by the SAPS, a discrepancy of more than 10 000 murders.

The Medical Research Council’s statistics reveal that 89 murders are committed, on average, every day in South Africa.

Interpol claims even higher numbers of murders in South Africa. While the SAPS claims that there were 26 883 murders in 1995, Interpol claims that there were 54 298 “murders known to the police” in 1995/96. Interpol’s figures are approximately double the numbers of “recorded murders” in South Africa.

According to Interpol, South Africa has the highest recorded per capita murder rate of the countries covered in their report for 1998. In that year, Interpol recorded the per capita murder rate in the USA as 6 per 100 000, while in South Africa it was 59 per 100 000.

The Most Murderous Societies On Earth

The Nedcore Project has concluded that: “South Africa and Southern Africa are probably the most murderous societies on earth, even with the probable under-reporting.” The Nedcore Project claims the results of their surveys “underscore the fact that crime has become South Africa’s pre-eminent sociological problem. It now eclipses even unemployment in concerns of all South Africans.”

The bizarre behaviour of the ANC government in, at one stage, imposing a moratorium on crime statistics is also questioned. The report shows that in the first seven years of ANC rule, violence and crime in South Africa increased by 33%, officially.

Worse Than War

The UCA Report on Murder in South Africa reveals that according to the official statistics, in the 44 years from 1950 to 1993, there was an average of 7036 murders per year. This covered the turbulent strife of the apartheid years of warfare, conflict, terrorism, riots and repression.

However, in the first eight years (of peace) of the new democratic dispensation, under the ANC, an average of 24 206 murders were committed each year. However, if the Interpol statistics are accepted, then the murder rate in South Africa during the ANC years has averaged 47 882 per year.

Official Cover Up

Sharp discrepancies between official statistics and those of Interpol and the Medical Research Council are considered. One observer is quoted as saying that the “easiest way for the police to reduce the crime rate is simply to do nothing but record only those crimes where a case number is absolutely mandatory …” Numerous experts are quoted as suspecting “serious under reporting”; “perhaps these figures are concealed for political reasons’; “the reason for this under reporting could be the desire to change the ongoing reputation of South Africa as the crime capital of the world.”

The Rooster said...

Zero tolerancwe , all your ridiculous claims hgave been debunked. I'm not going to repeat and repeat why you are wrong. Accomodate the new information I'vr provided you , assimulate it and adapt. I'm not going to pander to your stupdity.

Convenient you don't mention the steady decrease in murders in the country either. People like you so badly want to see people getting killed you even invent more deaths like some sick celebration.

Anonymous said...

Yeesh, only six months and you feel the right to comment here? Typical American. Greg/Beaver Cleaver, please save us South Africans from ourselves. Please, we can't possibly do it without your Yank can-do attitude and American pie! Where would we be without you... I have no skin colour anymore, Greg. I was hijacked and they stole it. Why do you feel the need to ask?

My biggest problem is that life has just given me lemons for 26 years. What do you suggest I do? The burglars just stole my last bag of sugar...

The Rooster said...

Right Greg. Just ask yourself who has more of an agenda to exageratte crime ? An official monitored orginisation ? Or a nazi hate group ?

Anonymous said...

Everybody sing "Turkey in the straw" and clap your hands, Boers to the right, Keith and Greg to the left. Now wave your hands in the air, grab a cow and chicken, and drop it like it's hot... Everybody inda barn say ho ho ho, the roof, the roof, the roof is on fire!!!!

Anonymous said...

Why would the SAPS cover up murders that the SA Medical research council reported? I know there is corruption in the SAPS and, unfortunately, even some criminals on the force, but that just seems far-fetched. I would like specific references to a source that can back up your claim. As far as what Interpol says, that shouldn't matter anyway because they are not the ones who go out to homicides in SA and they are not the ones who count the dead bodies, the SAPS are.
Anonymous 23:04 - six months does not make me an all-knowing expert, but it certainly did give me a first-hand flavor or life in Johannesburg, supposedly the crime capital of South Africa and the world. During that time I walked around Soweto numerous times, Alexandra twice and numerous times in the infamous Hillbrow and in the CBD, as well as Joubert park. I would not recommend walking around Hillbrow however, but other areas seem to be fine. I am sorry you feel I am just another arrogant American, I try not to be. I say what I do based on first-hand experiences of six months and I explained previously why my trip was limited to that amount of time. I would have loved to have spent more time in SA.

The Rooster said...

Greg. They're trying to convince you not to belief your own eyes and ears. I have lived here for 30 years and never known anybody directly affected by violent crime. I don't pretend that Joburg is not worse than the rest of the country , it clearly is. I'd be happy if people could make that distinction and stop putting the whole country under the same banner as soweto.

Anonymous said...

There is nothing wrong with South Africa, I have never been robbed or had my cars hijacked. It is all in you minds and you just want SA to fail or go to war. If you are so unhappy, why dont you run away like all the others and see if you will be happier anywhere else.
South Africa is a great country and will always be so.

Anonymous said...

True. They so badly want to see South Africa fail that they look under ever rock for anything wrong ....you could do this for any country and find evidence for your paranoid delusions.

ZeroTolerance said...

SA crime stats 2007 - 2008

A breakdown in the crime statistics recorded between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 as reported by the SA Police Service:

NOTE: They hide the actual murders by splitting them into two different categories - they show total murders, plus... way down the list they show the culpible homicides
When taken together, the official number is huge - more than 31,500 murders per annum.


The figures are arranged in the number of incidents per 100 000 people.

- Murder: 18 487 cases reported, 38,6 incidents.

- Attempted murder: 18 795 cases reported, 39,3 incidents.

- Assault GBH: 210 104 cases reported, 439,1 incidents.

- Common assault: 198 049 cases reported, 413,9 incidents.

- Common robbery 64 985 cases reported, 135,8 incidents.

- Arson: 7 396 cases reported, 15,5 incidents.

- Malicious damage to property: 136 968 cases reported, 286,2 incidents.

- Burglary at residential premises: 237 853 cases reported, 497,1 incidents.

- Burglary at non-residential premises: 62 995 cases reported, 131,7 incidents.

- Motor vehicle and motorcycle theft: 8 8226 cases reported, 167,7 incidents.

- Theft out of motor vehicles: 111 661 cases reported, 233,4 incidents.

- Stock theft; 28 778 cases reported, 60,1 incidents.

- Illegal possession of firearms or ammunition: 13 476 cases reported, 28,2 incidents.

- Drug related crime: 109 134 cases reported, 228,1 incidents.

- Driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol: 48 405 cases reported, 101,2 incidents.

- Theft not mentioned elsewhere: 395 296 cases reported, 826,1 incidents.

- Commercial crime: 65 286 cases reported, 136,4 incidents.

- Shoplifting; 66 992 cases reported, 140 incidents.

- Culpable homicide: 13 184 cases reported, 27,6 incidents.

- Kidnapping: 2 323 cases reported, 4,9 incidents.

- Abduction: 2 728 cases reported, 5,7 incidents.

- Neglect or ill treatment of children: 4 106 cases reported, 8,6 incidents.

- Public Violence: 895 cases reported, 1,9 incidents.

- Crimen injuria: 33 064 cases reported or 69,1 incidents.

* The law regarding rape cases has changed to include male rape, and as such the crime statistics only reflect rape and indecent assault statistics between April and December 2007;

- Rape: 36 190 cases reported, 75,6 incidents.

- Indecent assault: 6 763 case reported, 14,1 incidents.

- Aggravated robbery: 118 312 cases reported, 247,3 incidents.

* This included 14, 201 carjacking incidents or 29,7 incidents and 1 245 truck hijacking incidents.

It also included 14 481 incidents of robbery at residential properties or 30,3 cases per 100 000 people, and 9 852 incidents of robbery at non-residential properties or 20,6 incidents per 100 000 people.

There were 395 cases of cash-in-transit robberies or 0,8 incidents per 100 000 people, and 144 bank robberies or 0,3 incidents per 100 000 people. - Sapa